Tentative list of topics to be covered: Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, martingales, Poisson processes, renewal theory, and Brownian motion, with applications (as time permits) to Monte Carlo algorithms, random walks on graphs, branching processes, option pricing, queueing theory, and more.
[See also the evolving lecture notes, to be updated after each lecture.]
Instructor: Professor Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto. Sidney Smith Hall (SS), room 5022; phone (416) 978-4594; e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org; web http://probability.ca/jeff/
Lectures: Thursdays, 6:10 - 9:00 p.m., in room 128 of the Mining Building (170 College St.; building "MB" on campus map). First class Jan 10. Last class April 4. No class Feb 21 (Reading Week). During lectures, please put away your laptops and cell phones (unless you are using them specifically for a class-related purpose with prior permission), and pay attention to the material being presented.
Course Web Page: Visit probability.ca/sta447 for course information and announcements.
Prerequisite: STA347. NOTE: This prerequisite will be strictly enforced for undergraduate students: undergraduate students without STA347 will not be permitted to remain in STA447 except in very special circumstances. (It does not suffice to simply have taken some other advanced statistics courses.) For graduate students, it suffices to have taken a course equivalent to STA347 at another university; if you are unsure about the equivalence then please ask me.
Evaluation (TENTATIVE, MIGHT CHANGE!):
28% Midterm #1 (two hours): Thurs Feb 7 during class time
28% Midterm #2 (two hours): Thurs Mar 21 during class time
44% Final Exam (three hours): some time during April 6-30, to be announced later
Notes: On all tests and exams, BRING YOUR STUDENT CARD, and DO NOT SIT NEXT TO ANYONE THAT YOU KNOW, and NO AIDS ALLOWED (not even calculators). See also the various student services and academic resources available. And, even if there are no graded homework assignments, you are still strongly encouraged to attempt the practice problems in the lecture notes and supplementary readings to learn the material well and prepare well for the tests and exam.
Instructor Office Hours: You are welcome to talk to the instructor after class, or any time you find him in his office (SS 5022), or you can e-mail him to arrange another time to meet.
Supplementary Readings: There is no required textbook. The instructor will post his rough lecture notes on this course web page after each lecture. In addition, the following books (among others) may be useful for further reading:
Lateness policy: Homework assignments (if any) are due sharp at the indicated time. Lateness penalties are: 1-5 mins = 1 point; 6-10 mins = 2 points; 11-30 mins = 5% of total points; 31 mins - 24 hours = 10% of total points; longer = (10% of total points) x (number of days late, rounded UP).
Regrading policy: Regrading requests should only be made for genuine grading errors, and should be initiated by writing or typing a complete explanation of your concern (together with your full name, student number, e-mail address, and telephone number) on a separate piece of paper, and giving this together with your original unaltered test/homework paper to the instructor within one week of when the graded work was first available. Warning: your mark may end up going down rather than up. (Note: for final exams, a different Faculty-wide process should be followed instead.)