Non-Research Writings of Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Hello. I hope you enjoy these writings. Any comments are most welcome. See also my book Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities, and the media articles which mention me below. Happy reading!

Articles for the General Public:

(These articles can all be read and understood regardless of your mathematics background.)

FOOTBALL (SOCCER) GROUP DRAW METHODS AND PROBABILITIES. Toronto Star opinion section, p. A17, March 31, 2022. [Or in pdf or image or plain-text. See also the related project description and computer simulations and research paper and UofT News interview/A&S and CBC.ca article and UEFA.]
OLYMPIC SPRINT FALSE START FAILED TO GET OFF THE BLOCKS. Toronto Star, August 10, 2021, page A15. [pdf, image, original, starter web page, related calculations, Athletics Illustrated article]
ARTICLE ABOUT ELECTION POLL ERRORS (text / top / bottom / page). Published in the Globe and Mail on November 13/14, 2020, page O9. [See also my related article POLLS, DAMNED POLLS, AND STATISTICS (pdf), IMS Bulletin, November 2020.]
A NOTE ABOUT PIEMS (i.e., poems which secretly encode the digits of pi). January 2018.
PI INSTANT: March 14, 2015, at 9:26:53.58979... a.m. October 2014. Published in the February 2015 issue of Math Horizons. (See a related radio interview.)
STATISTICS AND THE ONTARIO LOTTERY RETAILER SCANDAL, based on my earlier investigations for the Fifth Estate. Published in CHANCE Magazine 27(1), 2014. (Later republished in Best Writing on Mathematics 2015, and in Chinese.)
PROBABILITY, JUSTICE, AND THE RISK OF WRONGFUL CONVICTION (pdf). September 2014. Published in The Mathematical Enthusiast 12, June 2015. (See related judicial talk / Bootmakers talk.)
THE MATHEMATICS OF YOUR NEXT FAMILY REUNION (pdf), October 2011. Who is your "first cousin twice removed", and how closely are they related to you? Published in Plus Magazine (with Appendix), December 2011.
A SIMPLE SOLUTION TO THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM, August 2006. By popular demand! [See also my slightly more technical article MONTY HALL, MONTY FALL, MONTY CRAWL (pdf).]
ONTARIO'S CENTER-LEFT STATISTICAL CONUNDRUM and some RELATED CALCULATIONS about vote-splitting in Ontario's October 2018 election.
HOW PROBABILITY THEORY NEARLY DESTROYED CANADA. Lessons from the Meech Lake Accord political debates about Canadians' attitudes towards randomness. Published in Outreach Connection, October 2005.
My ARTICLE ABOUT THE TORONTO INTERNATIONAL FILM FESTIVAL LOTTERY SYSTEM [or in text]. Published in the National Post, September 10, 2005.
THE MAGICAL MATHEMATICS OF MUSIC. Published in Plus Magazine, May 2005. (See local copy and also a related radio interview.)
I wrote a number of PROBABILITY QUIZZES, some of which were published in Saturday Night Magazine before they folded.
See also my books Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities and Knock on Wood: Luck, Chance, and the Meaning of Everything, my biography, and my other books and research papers.

Articles for People Interested in Math or Stats:

PROBABILITIES OF STREAKS IN ONLINE CHESS (pdf), Aug/Sept 2024. (See orig/add, UofT News/video, Chess.com article/interview, Kvideo, Nvideo.)
THE ANNALS QUADFECTA 23 (pdf) (with Margaret Fulford), April 2021. Published on page 18 of the June/July 2021 issue 50(4) of the IMS Bulletin.
POLLS, DAMNED POLLS, AND STATISTICS (pdf). November 2020. Published in the IMS Bulletin 50(1), January/February 2021, p. 4 (see web version).
BRIDGE PROBABILITIES FOR A 9-CARD SUIT. May 2020.
A PROPOSAL FOR EVALUATING STUDENT MEDICAL EXCUSES, joint with Louella Lobo, March 2020.
COMPUTING MARGINS OF ERROR IN OPINION POLLS. August 2018.
STATISTICS USING JUST ONE FORMULA (pdf). March 2017. (Published in Teaching Statistics 40(1), 7-11, 2017.)
MATHEMATICS TO SCALE (pdf). June 2016. An article about "scaling" of quantities in different dimensions, inspired by a unit in STA201. Published in Pi In The Sky, Issue 20, 2017.
THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT: DIVIDE BY n WHEN ESTIMATING VARIANCE (pdf). August 2015. Published in the IMS Bulletin, December 2015. (See also a related calculation.)
LESSONS FROM A TWISTED CAREER PATH (pdf). Reflections upon my academic career path that ultimately led to receiving the COPSS Presidents' Award. (Book chapter for a COPSS volume; February 2013; later translated into Chinese.)
A STATISTICAL RANKING OF NCAA BASKETBALL TEAMS [or in pdf and text]. Predictions for the 2013 "March Madness" NCAA basketball tournament, prepared for TSN. (See also some related probabilities.)
My REVIEW OF A BOOK ABOUT COXETER (quoted here) was published in the Globe and Mail, October 14, 2006.
FOREIGN POLICY BY THE NUMBERS, a mathematician's perspective on global events, July 2005.
MONTY HALL, MONTY FALL, MONTY CRAWL (pdf), June 2005. Uses the Proportionality Principle to truly explain the infamous Monty Hall problem. Published in Math Horizons, September 2008.
My PAGE ABOUT W.K. HASTINGS, the Canadian co-developer of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, March 2004.
MARGINS OF ERROR IN OPINION POLLS, 2003. How to compute that a poll is "accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20". (See also an UPDATED VERSION, August 2018.)
DOUGLAS HOFSTADTER AND ME (September 2002). A recollection of the time I met my childhood idol Douglas Hofstadter, and accidentally insulted him.

Other Non-Fiction:

STATEMENT ABOUT THE QUEBEC GOVERNMENT'S NEW "CHARTER". My reaction the day Quebec tried to introduce a law banning religious headgear in government jobs. Sept 10, 2013.
A CALL FOR A NEW PROGRESSIVE PARTY OF CANADA. Thoughts about Canadian electoral politics in the aftermath of Jack Layton's death (August 2011).
IMPROV AND MUSIC: AN UNUSUAL DUO. A short article about providing musical accompaniment for improvisational comedy shows. (Published in Theatre Sports Toronto's newsletter, Novemver 2001.)
THEY ZAPPED ME WITH LASERS. An article about my experiences with PRK laser eye surgery. (A condensed version was published in The Outreach Connection, Sept. 23, 1998, page 14.)
WHY I FAST ON YOM KIPPUR (September 1996). A brief reflection on being secular and Jewish.
My LIST OF FAMOUS CANADIANS.
My LEAN COMPUTING computer philosophy, and the related NO MICROSOFT WORD ATTACHMENTS plea.
My article IN SUPPORT OF THE SINGULAR "THEY".
I have also had letters to the editor published in the Globe and Mail, Maclean's, U of T Bulletin, and Canadian Humanist News.

Fiction, Etc:

Over the years, I have written various short stories and poems. A few of them are listed here. They're far from perfect, however you might possibly find them interesting. (If you do, then please let me know.)

TWEEZERS (1990). A short story inspired by a dream I had.
HOW EASY IT IS (1993). Another short story, this one developed over a longer period.
THE SPACE ADVENTURES OF HUCKLEBERRY FINN (1990). A light Star Trek spoof.
A BRIEF MEMORY OF SEVENTEEN (2001). A story about an old memory.
A BRIEF MEMORY OF EIGHTEEN (2016). Another old memory.
A WEEKEND IN ALGONQUIN (2003). A story inspired by my camping trips.
FAREWELL TO PARADISE (1984). A short poem from long ago, occasioned by the departure of a close friend.
See also my animation, computer games, music, and drawings.

Some Media Articles by Others which Mention Me:

An ARTICLE ABOUT BASEBALL AND PROBABILITIES, by Murray Campbell, published in the Globe and Mail on March 31, 2001.
An ARTICLE ABOUT DISEASE PANDEMICS AND FEAR, by Lianne George, published in Maclean's, September 28, 2005.
An ARTICLE ABOUT MY BOOK AND ASSESSING RISK, by Olivia Ward, published in the Toronto Star on October 8, 2005.
A FILM-NOIR-STYLE REVIEW OF MY BOOK (scanned: Page 1, Page 2), by Glenn Garnett, published in the Toronto Sun on October 23, 2005.
An ARTICLE ABOUT ME AND MY BOOK, by Tania Therien, published in the Calgary Herald, November 19, 2005.
An ARTICLE ABOUT ME AND MY BOOK [or here], by Kate Fillion, published in Maclean's, November 25, 2005.
An ARTICLE ABOUT CANADIAN ELECTION POLLS, by Robert Benzie, published in the Toronto Star, January 21, 2006.
An ARTICLE ABOUT FEAR, by Georgie Binks, on the CBC web site, February 3, 2006.
An ARTICLE ABOUT ME, MY BOOK, MY TEACHING, AND MY IMPROV, by Stacey Gibson, published in U of T Magazine, Spring 2006. Reprinted (in condensed form) in the September 2007 issue of Reader's Digest Canada, the most read magazine in Canada.
An ARTICLE ABOUT THE TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS' PLAYOFF PROBABILITIES (or text), by Mike Strobel, published in the Toronto Sun, April 13, 2006. (See also the probability calculations that I used.)
An ARTICLE ABOUT LOTTERY PROBABILITIES, by Ellen Roseman, published in the Toronto Star, April 30, 2006.
An ARTICLE ABOUT THE TELEVISION SHOW 'DEAL OR NO DEAL', by J. Kelly Nestruck, published in the National Post, May 30, 2006.
A GLOBE AND MAIL FRONT PAGE ARTICLE AND NEXT-DAY EDITORIAL AND TORONTO STAR ARTICLE ABOUT INSIDER LOTTERY WINS. Also numerous other media coverage, plus Ontario legislature debate #1 and #2 and a Freakonomics blog entry and more. All inspired by the Fifth Estate episode of October 25, 2006 that I consulted for.
An ARTICLE ABOUT HOMICIDES AND RANDOMNESS, by Dan Gardner, published in the Ottawa Citizen, July 25, 2007.
An ARTICLE ABOUT HOMICIDE STATISTICS, by Paola Loriggio, published in the Toronto Star, January 19, 2008.
An ARTICLE ABOUT BLACKJACK AND THE MOVIE "21", by Constance Droganes, published at ctv.ca, March 29, 2008.
My article LOTTERY FRAUD: SOLVING CRIMES USING MATH, published in the RCMP Gazette, Vol. 70, No. 1, February 2008 (aussi en francais dans Convergence), based on my earlier investigations.
My article I'M BIASED, YOU'RE BIASED, written for Sublime Magazine, March 2008.
A PANEL REVIEW OF THE MOVIE "21", published in the National Post, April 4, 2008.
SOLVING EQUATIONS AND SOLVING CRIME, by Thane Burnett, published in the Toronto Sun, February 22, 2009. ("Rosenthal already defied convention, or at least the image of a math professor who's married to a librarian.")
An ARTICLE ABOUT PEDESTRIAN DEATHS in the Toronto Star, with a SHORTER VERSION on the front page of Metro News, Jan 29-30, 2010.
An ARTICLE ABOUT PROBABILITIES in Vegas Seven, Feb 18, 2010.
See also my book-related publicity activities and some U of T News articles featuring me.

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